Uncertainty and scenarios

N°111a – Synth├Ęse (8 p.) – Foresight
Uncertainty and scenarios
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How to cope with uncertainty more effectively? Scenario planning helps companies make better decisions in uncertain situations and prepare for various eventualities.

When faced with uncertainty, people tend to prepare for the most probable outcome. Strategic planning is a good case in point. Forecasts are derived from detailed analysis of the company and its environment. Company strategy and action plans are then established based on these forecasts.

In relatively stable environments, this approach usually works pretty well. In times of uncertainty, however, it can be misleading. Forecasts can become blinders that hide the whole picture, leading companies to make the wrong decisions.

“The Sixth Sense” condones an entirely different approach. The authors recommend systematic reliance upon scenario thinking, which consists in imagining the different ways a situation could evolve – even those that may seem highly improbable. The objective is to get people to see abroad range of possible outcomes, so that they can better prepare for any eventuality. This method greatly facilitates important strategic choices and many day-to-day operational decisions!

– Learn about common traps that await people facing uncertainty.

– Discover the virtues of scenario thinking.

– Learn to develop provocative, but plausible scenarios that will spur people into action.

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