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The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.Confucius

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The Sixth Sense

The Sixth Sense

Managing uncertainty more effectively with the scenario planning method.

Author(s): Ron Bradfield, Kees Van der Heijden, George Wright, George Cairns, George Burt

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Date of publication: 2002

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This book notes that most companies aren't very good at predicting what will come next. Their approach tends to be rigid, conformist and excessively intellectual. The authors recommend systematic reliance upon scenario thinking - not as a means to foretell the future, but to learn to reason effectively in uncertain environments and prepare for different eventualities.