Managing Strategic Surprise

This book is a compilation of articles by risk management experts, and contains examples of various high-risk environments, such as defense, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, etc. The compilers of the book then use these examples as a springboard to show how it is possible to prepare for risk in a very uncertain world. In particular, the contribution of Paul Bracken, professor of management and political science at Yale, “How to build a warning system?” (Chapter 2) reminds us that there is no perfect early alert system in the absolute, but that everything is a question of fit between the environment on the one hand, and the ability to collect, process and communicate alerts specific to the organization concerned on the other. A system that is fully operational at a given moment in time may very quickly become unsuitable if the environment shifts. Companies should therefore avoid depending solely on formal systems to detect risk.